When Will the Continents Come Together Again

What Will the Climate Be Like When Earth's Next Supercontinent Forms?

Long ago, all the continents were crammed together into one large state mass called Pangea. Pangea broke apart most 200 million years ago, its pieces globe-trotting away on the tectonic plates — but not permanently. The continents will reunite again in the deep future. And a new written report, which volition be presented December eight during an online affiche session at the meeting of the American Geophysical Union, suggests that the future organization of this supercontinent could dramatically impact the habitability and climate stability of Earth. The findings as well have implications for searching for life on other planets.

The study, which has been submitted for publication, is the beginning to model the climate on a supercontinent in the deep time to come.

Scientists aren't exactly certain what the next supercontinent will look like or where it volition be located. I possibility is that, 200 1000000 years from now, all the continents except Antarctica could join together effectually the due north pole, forming the supercontinent "Amasia." Some other possibility is that "Aurica" could grade from all the continents coming together around the equator in about 250 million years.

How land could exist distributed in the Aurica supercontinent (top) versus Amasia. The hereafter state configurations are shown in gray, with modern-mean solar day outlines of the continents for comparing. Credit: Mode et al. 2020

In the new study, researchers used a 3D global climate model to simulate how these two state mass arrangements would affect the global climate system. The inquiry was led past Michael Way, a physicist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, an affiliate of Columbia University's World Establish.

The team institute that, by changing atmospheric and ocean circulation, Amasia and Aurica would have profoundly different effects on the climate. The planet could end up being 3 degrees Celsius warmer if the continents all converge around the equator in the Aurica scenario.

In the Amasia scenario, with the state amassed around both poles, the lack of land in between disrupts the sea conveyor belt that currently carries oestrus from the equator to the poles. Equally a result, the poles would be colder and covered in water ice all yr long. And all of that water ice would reflect heat out into space.

With Amasia, "you lot get a lot more snowfall," explained Way. "Y'all get ice sheets, and yous get this very effective ice-albedo feedback, which tends to lower the temperature of the planet."

In addition to cooler temperatures, Manner suggested that sea level would probably be lower in the Amasia scenario, with more water tied upwardly in the ice caps, and that the snowy conditions could mean that there wouldn't be much state bachelor for growing crops.

Aurica, by contrast, would probably exist a bit beachier, he said. The land concentrated closer to the equator would absorb the stronger sunlight in that location, and in that location would be no polar water ice caps to reflect heat out of World's atmosphere — hence the higher global temperature.

Although Style likens Aurica'southward shores to the paradisiacal beaches of Brazil, "the inland would probably be quite dry," he warned. Whether or not much of the land would exist farmable would depend on the distribution of lakes and what types of precipitation patterns it experiences — details that the electric current newspaper doesn't delve into, but could be investigated in the future.

Distribution of snowfall and ice in winter and summertime on Aurica (left) and Amasia. Credit: Way et al. 2020

The simulations showed that temperatures were right for liquid water to exist on about 60% of Amasia's land, equally opposed to 99.8% of Aurica's — a finding that could inform the search for life on other planets. One of the main factors that astronomers expect for when scoping out potentially habitable worlds is whether or not liquid h2o could survive on the planet'south surface. When modeling these other worlds, they tend to simulate planets that are either completely covered in oceans, or else whose terrain looks like that of modern-day Earth. The new study, all the same, shows that it'south important to consider state mass arrangements while estimating whether temperatures fall in the 'habitable' zone between freezing and boiling.

Although it may be 10 or more years before scientists can ascertain the actual land and sea distribution on planets in other star systems, the researchers hope that having a larger library of land and body of water arrangements for climate modeling could bear witness useful in estimating the potential habitability of neighboring worlds.

Hannah Davies and Joao Duarte from the University of Lisbon, and Mattias Green from Bangor University in Wales were co-authors on this research.

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Source: https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2020/12/01/climate-supercontinent-deep-future/